Ninety-Two Years
of October.Week of October 8 · XPO · KLAC · RCL
Three windows opened Thursday carrying 23, 36 and 33 years of history between them — the deepest board we have ever published[cite: 26]. All three close within three days of each other[cite: 26].
Three we published recently, marked to Thursday's close.[cite: 26] MACOM (MTSI) — published September 29 at $288.29, closed Thursday at $330.75, up 14.73% in nine days[cite: 26]. XPO — published September 29 at $175.53, closed at $181.95, up 3.66%, and back on this board with a new window[cite: 26]. Planet Fitness (PLNT) — published September 22 at $50.16, closed at $41.85, down 16.57%[cite: 26].
We print the third for the same reason we print worst-year and worst-drawdown on every card[cite: 26]. PLNT's write-up gave its deepest closing drawdown in eleven years as -13.22%[cite: 26]. It is now past that[cite: 26]. Anyone who sized against that number is uncomfortable. Anyone who sized against the 90.91% frequency alone is not.[cite: 26] That is the argument for the downside band, and we would rather make it with a real loss than a hypothetical one[cite: 26].
Figures reference publicly reported closing prices on the dates stated. They are not a representation of subscriber results and exclude commissions, fees and slippage.
No cuts on the board through 2027
The Fed raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023 — unanimous, 12–0, to 3.75%–4.00%[cite: 26]. Sixteen of eighteen participants expect at least one more hike this year, four pencilled in two, and the median shows roughly 4.1% at year end and again through 2027[cite: 26].
That means no cuts projected at all over the forecast horizon, futures implying about 4.3% by December, and long-dated yields near twenty-year highs[cite: 26]. The next decision lands October 27–28 — and two of these three names report earnings in those same 48 hours[cite: 26].
The strongest row — and the one you have seen before
XPO leads this board on the measures that matter most together: the best profit factor at 7.66, the tightest downside at 4.91% sigma, the smallest average losing move at 8.15%, the best efficiency score and the biggest average move per trade[cite: 26]. On a risk-adjusted basis nothing else here is close[cite: 26].
It is also a name you have seen recently[cite: 26]. We published XPO on September 29 at $175.53 on a window running to December 17[cite: 26]. It closed Thursday at $181.95 — up 3.66% — and the scanner has now selected it again on a separate, shorter window[cite: 26].
Read that carefully if you are already in it.[cite: 26] The September window is still open[cite: 26]. This is a second window on the same name, not a signal to add[cite: 26]. Treat it as confirmation to hold through the original exit, not as a reason to double your position size[cite: 26].
The business underneath remains a structural story rather than a cyclical one[cite: 26]. Yellow's bankruptcy permanently removed less-than-truckload capacity, and that supply reset is what hands XPO pricing power[cite: 26]. Second-quarter adjusted earnings came in at $1.70 a share against a $1.47 estimate[cite: 26].
Across 26 analysts the average target sits near $232 against a price around $182[cite: 26]. Bernstein initiated at Outperform with a $244 target, framing the thesis as a structural supply reset rather than a demand recovery; Goldman moved to $247 and Stephens to $270[cite: 26]. Citi is the caution at Neutral with a lowered $220[cite: 26].
XPO reports third-quarter results on October 29 — inside this 21-day hold, and one day after the Fed decision[cite: 26]. Freight remains deeply cyclical with a demand backdrop still described as muted, and diesel prices have been climbing[cite: 26]. The -24.14% worst drawdown is the middle of this board, not the best[cite: 26].
Trucking is a direct read on the real economy, which makes XPO the most cyclically exposed name here[cite: 26]. Higher rates slow the freight demand it depends on, while the tightened capacity supports pricing[cite: 26]. The Fed matters to this one through the economy, not just the multiple[cite: 26].
XPO is the best risk-adjusted window on the board by a clear margin, on a name already working since we published it nine days ago[cite: 26]. The caveats are earnings inside the window, a cyclical end market, and a second window overlapping a position many readers already hold[cite: 26].
Thirty-six years — the deepest record we have ever carried
Thirty-six years of history — the deepest record this board has ever carried, beating the 28-year window we published last week[cite: 26]. Five stars, and the strongest annual win rate on this board across that span[cite: 26]. It also carries the roughest worst-drawdown figure we have ever printed on any card, and the price will look unfamiliar because the company executed a ten-for-one split in June[cite: 26]. Those facts belong on the same page, and members see all of them[cite: 26].
Both dates, all twelve statistics, the catalyst, the risk flags and the bottom line continue inside Super Seasonal.
Thirty-three years, and a sector that just moved without it
Thirty-three years of history, four stars, and the longest hold of the three[cite: 26]. It is also the only name here whose entire sector repriced double digits in a single week — on a competitor's earnings report, not its own[cite: 26]. Its own print lands on day one of the Fed's two-day meeting[cite: 26]. Whether that is a reason to take it or a reason to leave it is the whole write-up[cite: 26].
Both dates, all twelve statistics, the catalyst, the risk flags and the bottom line continue inside Super Seasonal.
The three, side by side
| Ticker | Rating | Years | Freq. | Profit Factor | Hold | Worst Drawdown | Downside Σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPOXPO · unlocked | 5 / 5 | 23 | 82.61% | 7.66 | 21d | -24.14% | 4.91% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | 5 / 5 | 36 | 00.00% | 0.00 | 00d | -00.00% | 0.00% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean | 4 / 5 | 33 | 00.00% | 0.00 | 00d | -00.00% | 0.00% |
The board gives you a date. A live room gives you the follow-up question.
A window hands you an entry, an exit and a downside figure[cite: 26]. What it cannot do is answer “why that structure, why that size, and what would make you pass?”[cite: 26] That is what a live session is for[cite: 26].
Ryan runs it live in November[cite: 26]. Dates and details are on the page[cite: 26].
Save Your SeatSeparate from your SuperSeasonals membership. Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. See the page for current dates, pricing and terms.[cite: 26]
The October offer is live now.
Puddle Jumper's October deal is running, and it does not carry past the month[cite: 26]. If it has been on your list, this is the window[cite: 26].
Full terms, inclusions and pricing are on the page[cite: 26].
See the October DealSeparate from your SuperSeasonals membership. Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. See the page for current dates, pricing and terms.[cite: 26]
The Big Picture
Ninety-two years of history across three windows, and twenty-one days to use it[cite: 26].
Two things make this week unusual[cite: 26]. The first is depth: 23, 36 and 33 years — ninety-two years of evidence on one board, the most we have ever put in front of you[cite: 26]. The second is concentration: all three holds are 21 or 22 days and all three close within three days of each other.[cite: 26]
And notice what a star rating still cannot tell you[cite: 26]. The deepest record on this board carries five stars — and the worst drawdown on the page[cite: 26]. Stars measure how much evidence stands behind a pattern[cite: 26]. They say nothing about what it costs when the pattern fails, and sizing requires the second answer[cite: 26].
Super Seasonal Trade Desk
