Same Stars.
Not the Same Trade.
Week of September 29 · SYF · MTSI · XPO
For the first time, every name on the board came back five stars[cite: 20]. On the top band they look interchangeable[cite: 20]. One band lower, their downside footprints differ by nearly four times[cite: 20].
One hike down. Most of them expect another.
On September 16 the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 — unanimous, 12–0, to 3.75%–4.00%[cite: 20]. Chair Warsh was blunt about why: inflation is too high and has been for too long, and this summer's readings did not convince him underlying trends had improved[cite: 20].
The projections matter more than the move[cite: 20]. Sixteen of eighteen participants expect at least one more hike this year, and four pencilled in two[cite: 20]. The median sees roughly 4.1% at year end and again through 2027 — no cuts.[cite: 20] Futures now imply about 4.3% by December[cite: 20]. Long-dated yields are near twenty-year highs[cite: 20]. The next decision lands October 27–28[cite: 20].
Something happened on this week's board that has not happened before.[cite: 20] All three names came back with five-star reliability[cite: 20]. Every previous issue has carried a three- or four-star somewhere[cite: 20]. On the top band they look almost interchangeable: frequencies of 90.91%, 91.67% and 89.47%[cite: 20].
Read one band lower and they stop looking alike at all[cite: 20]. Their downside footprints differ by nearly fourfold — between three setups that enter on the same Tuesday morning and carry the identical star rating[cite: 20]. That gap is the entire reason we publish a downside band, and it is the difference between three positions sized on purpose and three sized by accident[cite: 20].
One structural note we will not bury[cite: 20]. Our last issue closed before the Fed met[cite: 20]. This one does not.[cite: 20] Every window here holds through the October 27–28 decision, and each name reports earnings inside its own window[cite: 20]. The longest, MACOM, runs to January 13 and spans two Fed meetings[cite: 20].
Start with Synchrony. It is open to you in full.
Everything on SYF below is complete — all twelve statistics, the dated entry and exit, the catalyst, the risk flags and the bottom line.[cite: 20] Exactly as a member sees it[cite: 20].
It also happens to be the strongest name here: the highest profit factor on the board and the tightest downside record of the three.[cite: 20] Read it against the two beside it and the difference in risk footprint becomes obvious[cite: 20].
Seasonal statistics describe past behaviour and do not guarantee future results.[cite: 20]
The best risk-adjusted setup on the board
We are giving this one away in full, and we picked it deliberately[cite: 20]. SYF has the highest profit factor on the board at 22.68 and the tightest downside record here by a wide margin — a 1.98% sigma, a worst year of just -6.58%, and a worst closing drawdown of -11.28%[cite: 20]. It is also the shortest hold, closing November 25[cite: 20].
Look at what that downside band is telling you[cite: 20]. Across eleven years, the bad years in this window were shallow and the drawdowns were contained[cite: 20]. That is unusual for a consumer-credit name with a beta of 1.31, and it is the reason this one gets sized differently from the other two[cite: 20].
Synchrony is the quiet engine behind a lot of credit you have already used — the store cards and financing programmes for Amazon, Lowe's, Sam's Club, Walgreens and Verizon, plus CareCredit for medical and veterinary bills[cite: 20]. Second-quarter earnings landed at $2.59 a share against a $2.09 estimate, a 24% beat, on record purchase volume and loan growth, and management raised the full-year EPS outlook[cite: 20].
The capital return story is real[cite: 20]. The board approved a $6.5 billion buyback with no expiration date and lifted the quarterly dividend 13% to $0.34[cite: 20]. Forty-one analysts average a target near $87.50 against a $73 price, with a range running to $104, and Barclays reiterated Buy in September[cite: 20]. The company also named its first Chief AI Officer and is working with OpenAI on customer experience[cite: 20].
Two things[cite: 20]. One: Synchrony reports third-quarter earnings on or around October 21 — inside this window, so you hold through the print[cite: 20]. Two: this is a consumer lender in a hiking cycle[cite: 20]. Higher rates squeeze exactly the borrowers Synchrony finances, and card delinquencies are the number to watch[cite: 20]. The stock is down about 4% on the year and sits below its $88.77 52-week high[cite: 20].
A credit-card lender is genuinely two-sided on rates: higher rates widen the spread Synchrony earns, but they also stress the household balance sheets it lends against[cite: 20]. With the Fed signalling more to come, this is a bet that the consumer holds up[cite: 20].
SYF is the best risk-adjusted setup on this board: a 22.68 profit factor, a 1.98% downside sigma, and the shortest hold at 41 days[cite: 20]. Underneath sits a 24% earnings beat, a $6.5bn buyback and a 13% dividend raise[cite: 20]. The honest caveats are an earnings print inside the window and a consumer-credit business heading into a tightening cycle[cite: 20].
The biggest average move on the board
MACOM leads this board on frequency (91.67%) and on annual win rate (76.92%), and carries the largest average move per trade of the three[cite: 20]. It is also the longest hold on the list at 73 days — and its downside band is more than twice as wide as Synchrony's above[cite: 20]. Those two facts belong together, and members see both[cite: 20].
The full write-up — catalyst, risk flags, rate lens and bottom line — continues inside Super Seasonal.
Nineteen years of data — the deepest history here
XPO brings nineteen years of history, the deepest track record on this board, and the highest efficiency score of the three[cite: 20]. But its downside band is the widest here by a considerable margin — and on this particular name, the gap between the upside figures and the downside figures is the whole decision[cite: 20]. Members see both columns[cite: 20].
The full write-up — catalyst, risk flags, rate lens and bottom line — continues inside Super Seasonal.
Three five-star setups, side by side
| Ticker | Rating | Freq. | Profit Factor | Hold | Worst Drawdown | Downside Σ | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYFSynchrony · unlocked | 5 / 5 | 90.91% | 22.68 | 41d | -11.28% | 1.98% | 11 |
| MTSIMACOM | 5 / 5 | 91.67% | 19.03 | 73d | -00.00% | 0.00% | 12 |
| XPOXPO, Inc. | 5 / 5 | 89.47% | 8.06 | 56d | -00.00% | 0.00% | 19 |
The calendar tells you when. A workshop tells you how.
A seasonal window hands you a date and a downside figure[cite: 20]. What it does not hand you is the structure — how to actually express the trade once you are in the window, and how to size it against the number in that third band[cite: 20].
Ryan Jones runs this live[cite: 20]. There is $500 off on the table right now, and the offer is time-limited — full details, dates and what is covered are on the workshop page[cite: 20].
See the Workshop DetailsOptions involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Nothing here is personalized financial advice; see the workshop page for current pricing, dates and terms.[cite: 20]
Same stars. Very different trades.
Three names, one entry date, identical five-star ratings — and one of them swings nearly four times harder than another[cite: 20]. You cannot see that in a star rating.[cite: 20] You can only see it in the band most services never print[cite: 20].
The goal was never to trade more[cite: 20]. It was to trade fewer, better-prepared ideas — and to spend the rest of the week not worrying about them[cite: 20].
The Big Picture
Three five-star setups entering the same Tuesday, and almost nothing else in common[cite: 20].
Here is the single most useful thing this edition can show you[cite: 20]. These three carry the same five-star rating and enter on the same morning, and their downside footprints differ by nearly four times.[cite: 20] Under a four-statistic format they would have looked like the same trade[cite: 20]. They are not, and sizing them as though they were is how a good week turns into a bad month[cite: 20].
That is the whole argument for the rebuilt board, and this week makes it better than we could have[cite: 20]. Three identical ratings, three very different trades — and the only place that shows up is the band underneath[cite: 20].
Super Seasonal Trade Desk
Pulling back the curtain for 90 days.
See exactly what trades Ryan is taking, three times a week, for the next ninety days[cite: 20]. This watchlist tells you when the calendar has favoured a setup[cite: 20]. LaunchPad shows you someone actually trading one — with nothing edited out[cite: 20].
Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Trades shown are for education and illustration and are not personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past results do not guarantee future performance.[cite: 20]
You have read Synchrony. The other two are where it gets interesting.
MACOM leads this board on frequency and win rate with the largest average move of the three — on a 73-day hold that spans two Fed meetings[cite: 20]. XPO brings nineteen years of history, the deepest we have ever published, alongside the widest downside band here[cite: 20].
Both write-ups, and every number behind them, sit inside the platform[cite: 20]. So does the scanner that surfaced all three[cite: 20].
See Membership OptionsSeasonal statistics describe past behaviour and do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is personalized financial advice.[cite: 20]
