SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (October 19)
On Thursday night a Roadster left the ground over a row of Teslas. Tesla's seasonal window opened the same day — a date chosen from sixteen years of…
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The SuperSeasonal weekly watchlist, single-stock seasonality write-ups and market notes from the SmartTrading team.
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (October 12)
Three windows opened Thursday carrying 23, 36 and 33 years of history between them — the deepest board we have ever published[cite: 26]. All three close…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (October 5)
The loud one is on every screen: the Fed on the 27th, earnings on the 15th, CPI, payrolls[cite: 22]. The quiet one has been running since 1997 — and on…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (September 28)
For the first time, every name on the board came back five stars [cite: 20]. On the top band they look interchangeable[cite: 20]. One band lower, their…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (September 21)
Three entries on the same Tuesday — with downside sigma running from 3.99% to 14.45% [cite: 26]. Every number is below, including the ones that decide how…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (September 15)
This morning's CPI pushed the odds of a Wednesday rate hike to roughly 90% [cite: 10]. At those odds the hike itself is old news[cite: 10]. What moves…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (September 7)
A month ago a September hike was a one-in-three long shot. It is now the market's base case at roughly 66% [cite: 9]. Five days, four market-moving…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (August 31)
Chair Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” on inflation this morning, and September hike odds jumped to roughly even[cite: 6]. This week's window…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (August 24)
This week the calendar stops being a metaphor. One of these names is driven by an actual season — and it's the one with the weakest numbers on the scan.
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (August 17)
July CPI landed right on consensus and September hold odds jumped to ~62–64%[cite: 5]. Into the relief: a deep-value cyclical, a binary biotech catalyst,…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (August 10)
For the first time this cycle the market's base case is a rate hike — and the July CPI print lands Wednesday, mid-week. Three setups built as three…
SuperSeasonal Weekly Watchlist (August 3)
The FOMC held 9–3 with three hawkish dissents [cite: 3] — a headwind for long-duration growth. Into it: three dominant software franchises already down…
